Textile stocks have exhibited a mixed performance so far this calendar year (CY23), amidst higher domestic cotton prices and tepid global demand. Shares of Page Industries, Dollar Industries, Lux Industries, and VIP Clothing have declined up to 13 per cent so far in CY23, as against a 9 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex. On the contrary, shares of Arvind, Welspun India, Raymond, and Gokaldas Exports have gained up to 51 per cent, during the same period.
A total of 1,226 cases of COVID-19 sub-variant JN.1 have been reported in the country so far with Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh recording the highest number of cases till now, according to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) on Thursday.
Lack of political consensus on economic reforms a key concern.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Growth might be impacted by up to 0.30 per cent in the March quarter as normal economic activities come under pressure due to restrictions being imposed by more states to curb rising Omicron cases, economists at the country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank said on Tuesday. The economists said they were earlier estimating Q4 growth to come at 6.1 per cent, which can get impacted by 0.2-0.3 per cent because of the Omicron threat. "With states imposing Covid-related restrictions (night curfew on movement of people, restaurants allowed at 50 per cent capacity, offices to operate at 50 per cent capacity in various states), economic activity is likely to get impacted in Q4FY22," they said.
Given wild swings, investors are wondering where the metal market is going. There was a strong uptrend in industrial metal through much of the last three years due to fears of supply chain issues - first due to Covid-19 and then due to the Ukraine War. That uptrend broke down as it became apparent that global growth would moderate as inflation rose and Western Europe (the EU plus the UK) went into a near-recession and China was in a rolling lockdown.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Sebi's remarks assume importance as the benchmark equity index, Sensex, has surged by over 75 per cent this fiscal to 16,998.78 points.
'As long as economic growth remains steady, creating jobs and generating stable incomes, the rise in home loans should not create problems.' 'If the growth trajectory changes course over the medium term and interest rates rise along with inflation, the expanding trend in home loans may not sustain.'
SBI was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, dropping over 5 per cent, followed by Sun Pharma, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Hero MotoCorp and PowerGrid were among the gainers.
With an epic battle of billionaires for supremacy in one of the world's most prolific markets and a pandemic-propelled surge in online shopping in the background, India's nearly trillion-dollar retail market is hoping to touch 85 per cent of the pre-COVID business in the first half of the New Year. In a year when the COVID-19 carnage ripped apart the retail business, circa 2020 will best go down for the unravelling of the war between Jeff Bezos, the world's wealthiest man, and richest Indian Mukesh Ambani for pre-eminence in the booming market that is estimated to reach $1.3 trillion by 2025. It all started with Ambani's Reliance Industries agreeing in August to buy assets of the nation's second-largest retailer for Rs 24,713 crore, just a year after Bezos' Amazon purchased an indirect stake in the indebted Future Retail.
After the historic success of its Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is going full throttle with its plans to send Indian astronauts for the first time to the Moon by 2040, ISRO Chairman S Somanath said.
The four astronauts are -- Prashanth Balakrishnan Nair, Angad Prathap, Ajit Krishnan, and Shubhanshu Shukla -- Modi said at the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) at Thumba near the Kerala state capital.
The G20's Bali Declaration Wednesday acknowledged differences among members on the Russia-Ukraine war but said it was essential to adhere to international law, including protection of civilians caught in conflicts.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
As India's stock rises, the resolution of the border row may become even more difficult, warn Harsh V Pant and Kalpit Mankikar.
Industrial metals (ferrous and non-ferrous) suffered great volatility once the Ukraine War began in February 2022. First, there was a sharp price rise due to fears of supply disruption, followed by weak global demand. China's weakness and rolling lockdowns have hit production and demand.
There is no payment problem for Russian crude, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday. He said there is no proposal to cut retail fuel prices at the moment. Addressing a press conference, the minister said India enjoys a buyers' position and foreign suppliers are approaching Indian companies with offers to sell oil.
The country's most valuable lender HDFC Bank can perhaps no longer claim to be a favourite of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Two data indicators, both somewhat interconnected, point to this - the diminishing premium of HDFC Bank's American depositary receipts (ADRs) compared to local shares, and the ample investment opportunities available to FPIs in the domestic market. The ADR premium has shrunk to below 5 per cent, down from over 30 per cent in March 2021, and even lower than recent levels.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
EAM Jaishankar's mission is aimed at strengthening India's strategic autonomy in a complex international environment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The IMF on Tuesday projected a growth rate of 6.1 per cent for India in 2023, which is a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection. This is reflective of the "momentum" from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. "Growth in India is projected at 6.1 per cent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection," it said in its latest update of the World Economic Outlook.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the winners. HCL Technologies climbed 1 per cent after the company on Thursday posted a 10.85 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,983 crore for the fourth quarter of 2022-23. Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were among the laggards.
A study, commissioned by ADB and titled 'Policy Changes for Asia after the Global Recession: Impact of the Global Economy and Policy Implications', found Asian economies are poised for accelerated growth as the global economic crisis recedes.
R Ravindra, India's Deputy Permanent Representative (DPR) to the United Nations, on Wednesday, underlined New Delhi's efforts to send humanitarian assistance to civilians in the Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, saying that it has sent 38 tonnes of food and critical medical equipment to the region.
BRICS countries, including India, on Thursday voiced concern over the "fragile recovery" of global growth and the potential spillover effects from the "unconventional monetary policies" of the developed countries.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
According to the health department, both samples have been sent for whole genome sequencing.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.3 per cent for current fiscal year 2023-24 from 6 per cent it had predicted previously. This is primarily because of a stronger outturn in the first quarter and near-term momentum. The growth forecast compares with 7.2 per cent GDP expansion in FY23. In the previous fiscal year (FY22), the economy had grown 9.1 per cent.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty cut short their four-day gaining streak to close lower by half a per cent on Wednesday due to profit-taking in banking oil and metal stocks amid weak trends in global markets.
The IMF on Tuesday cut India's economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year, with its chief economist Gita Gopinath saying that the slight downgrade is mainly due to the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant. "If you look at the 2021-22 fiscal year, we have a slight downgrade of -0.5 percentage points and for the next fiscal year 2022-23 we have a slight upgrade of 0.5 percentage points. So, growth for the previous fiscal year is now nine per cent and for this year now is at nine per cent. We moved it up slightly," Gopinath told reporters during a news conference in Washington. In its latest update of World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund has cut India's economic growth forecast to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 31, joining a host of agencies which have downgraded their projections on concerns over the impact of the spread of Omicron on business activity and mobility.
Nifty dropped 63 points to end at 5,249. BSE market breadth was marginally negative. Out of 2979 stocks traded, 1,449 declined while 1,399 advanced.
'As the Indian economy continues to expand over the next three years, mid- and small-caps should do well as they have higher exposure to the domestic economy than large-caps.'
The rupee resumed lower at 64.20 per dollar.
Samvat 2072: Auto sector could see faster recovery
